Structural shift
Registered claim
Photonics Track 1 (WFE Subsystems) advances from building → consensus stage within the next 2 earnings cycles (by 2026-08-15), driven by sequential beat-and-raise across ICHR / AEIS / MKSI followed by HBM-cycle WFE pull-through (TER / FORM via SK Hynix M15X ramp + MU multi-year prepayments).
Registered 2026-05-10.
Resolution spec
Spec registered 2026-06-12.
- [A] CORE :: Sequential beat-and-raise across the WFE subsystem cohort: at least 2 of ICHR / AEIS / MKSI print Q2-cycle revenue above guide AND raise forward guidance per their primary disclosures, on or before 2026-08-15.kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-08-15 :: evidence: primary source
- [B] confirm :: HBM-cycle WFE pull-through: TER or FORM cites memory/HBM test or WFE demand strength in a Q2-cycle primary disclosure (print or call) on or before 2026-08-15.kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-08-15 :: evidence: primary source
Verdict rule: HIT if leg A and leg B. PARTIAL if leg A and not leg B. MISS if not leg A.
As frozen: HIT = A && B; PARTIAL = A && !B; MISS = !A
Tier history
- 2026-05-15: HIGH (initial). Trigger: Hold tier=high. The stage review moved the WFE Subsystems track from execution confirmation to fast horse validation today on decisive multi-quarter beat-and-raise across ICHR+AEIS+MKSI+TER+AMKR. The prediction calls for a further advance to consensus by 2026-08-15 - that path is intact and structurally supported (subsystem-leads-oem reinforced with 40 supports / 32.82 weight, zero major contradicts), but consensus building is the next adjacent stage and the stage review advanced one stage per the adjacent-only rule. Significance-weighted evidence accumulation through two more earnings cycles is what would push to resolved-hit; a single 0.50-substack DRAM-ETF speed-crash hypothetical does not justify a tier change downward.
- 2026-08-05: HIGH > MEDIUM. Trigger: Ichor's Q2 beat today continues the ICHR/AEIS/MKSI beat-and-raise driver the prediction rests on. But the core leg requires the WFE-subsystems track to advance to consensus by 2026-08-15, and today's stage review held that track at cohort cadence - two adjacent stage advances in 10 days is not achievable, so the core leg is very likely to miss even as the driver validates. Tier holds at the photonics-context medium.
Evaluated daily since registration: 93 evaluations. The 2 that moved the tier are listed above.