THE MOSAIC LEDGER

Updated 2026-10-12

Independent research. Mosaic method. Publicly graded.

Registered before. Graded after. Never edited.

Currently sharpest incomputepoweropticsmaterialsbiology

Record

14 resolved

4 HIT 5 PARTIAL 5 MISS

Leg-level: 17 of 33 legs passed.

Of the 16 legs that failed: 10 demanded a fact the record did not establish. 4 missed a numeric bar while moving in the called direction, short by 0.8 to 2.1 percentage points. 2 moved against the call.

14 resolved calls, 11 of them in a single month, on overlapping names in related supply chains. Small sample.

Not counted above: 1 resolved call never published to this ledger.

Every call below was registered before its horizon and is graded against rules written in advance. Method

Open calls

tickertypeclaimtierhorizon
Emerging themeVECO and AXTI re-rate from conviction-3 photonics-watchlist names to conviction-3-confirmed (or conviction-4) over the next 6 months as the InP supply-chain cluster (5+ attestations as of 5/10) becomes a market-recognized constraint.HIGH2026-09-30
BESICorrelation breakA memory maker deferring hybrid bonding past the current high-bandwidth-memory generation would normally break the order book of the hybrid-bonding tool leader, and it will not this time, because the orders are not memory-tied: at its Q3 CY2026 results on 2026-10-22, BE Semiconductor discloses quarterly order intake of at least EUR 250 million, against EUR 292.9 million in Q2 CY2026 and an EUR 281 million first-half quarterly average, and identifies a non-memory application as a driver of advanced-packaging demand.MEDIUM2026-10-22
TXNEarnings eventOn its 2026-10-21 third-quarter call Texas Instruments states that lead times across a material part of its portfolio are extended beyond its normal range, or that it is allocating supply, and NXP's 2026-10-27 third-quarter report keeps lead times beyond 16 weeks with book-to-bill above one: the analog and power-semiconductor incumbents have moved from recovery into allocation rather than a restock.MEDIUM2026-10-27
Structural shiftBy 2026-11-30 the memory constraint transmits beyond AI infrastructure into general hardware economics: at least four distinct non-AI-datacenter hardware issuers explicitly cite memory cost or memory supply as a named headwind to reported or guided margin in company-primary disclosure, AND at least one of SK hynix, Samsung Electronics or Micron discloses that general-purpose DRAM is being prioritised over HBM in wafer allocation or that DDR ASP growth exceeded HBM ASP growth in the quarter.MEDIUM2026-11-30
NVDAStructural shiftThrough 2026-12-31, NVIDIA continues vertical capital deployment into optical and physical AI supply chain via warrants, prepayments, and equity stakes at >$10B aggregate beyond the $44B-class run rate observed 4/28-5/8 (LITE+COHR $4B, GLW $3.2B, IREN $2.1B, AVGO Apollo/Blackstone $35B).HIGH2026-12-31
Structural shiftNVDA + TSMC strategic-restraint pricing regime breaks down in 2H 2026; ASPs migrate from cost-based to value-based across both platforms.MEDIUM2026-12-31
Structural shiftBy 2026-12-31 PJM-zone power scarcity rent migrates off the capacity market onto uncapped surfaces: at least three distinct generation owners disclose, in company-primary form, a data-center-dedicated behind-the-meter or bilateral supply arrangement with contracted capacity quantified in MW or GW, AND at least one of Talen, Constellation, Vistra or NRG discloses a dollar-quantified unit economic for such an arrangement ($/MW-day, $/MWh, or annual revenue or EBITDA per contracted GW) as distinct from a total-company guide.MEDIUM2026-12-31
Structural shiftBy 2027-02-28 the third-party compute-financing platforms announced on 2026-08-10 convert from memorandum to funded transaction: at least two distinct funded financings executed under those platforms are disclosed in company-primary form with size quantified in dollars or contracted compute capacity quantified in MW or GW, AND NVIDIA describes its own economic participation in the platform structure (capital contribution, guarantee, backstop, offtake or revenue share) in company-primary disclosure.MEDIUM2027-02-28

Resolved calls

tickertypeclaimverdictresolved
Structural shiftThrough 2026-09-30, the binding bottleneck on AI compute deployment shifts away from GPU compute itself (NVDA/AMD/AVGO supply) toward four named adjacent constraints (memory: HBM3E/HBM4 capacity; networking: optical interconnect / scale-up fabric; power: chip-to-grid + behind-the-meter gas + rack power; cooling: liquid-cooling adoption), and equity outperformance follows, with these four pure-play constraint stacks meaningfully outperforming pure-GPU-exposure on a 6-month basis.PARTIAL2026-10-01
Structural shiftIndium phosphide (InP) substrate capacity emerges as an explicit named constraint on AI compute interconnect deployment by 2026-Q3, on par with CoWoS-as-named-constraint in the prior 2024-2025 cycle.PARTIAL2026-09-30
Structural shiftPhotonics Track 1 (WFE Subsystems) advances from building → consensus stage within the next 2 earnings cycles (by 2026-08-15), driven by sequential beat-and-raise across ICHR / AEIS / MKSI followed by HBM-cycle WFE pull-through (TER / FORM via SK Hynix M15X ramp + MU multi-year prepayments).HIT2026-08-15
AMATEarnings eventAt its 2026-08-13 Q3 FY26 print Applied Materials revises its CY2026 WFE growth framing upward from the current >30% or quantifies CY2026 WFE growth above 30%, AND reports revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot, AND surfaces co-packaged-optics or silicon-photonics commentary after the Q2 FY26 transcript silence.MISS2026-08-14
COHREarnings eventAt its 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print Coherent discloses dollar-quantified indium phosphide substrate capacity commitment or explicit InP supply-constraint language from company-primary disclosure, AND reports revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot, AND reports non-GAAP gross margin of at least 41.0% against the 39.6% Q3 FY26 base.PARTIAL2026-08-13
LITEEarnings eventLumentum's Q2 CY2026 print discloses an AI-optics / optical-circuit-switch backlog of at least USD 600M (a step of 50%+ above the >USD 400M figure reiterated 2026-06-24) and revenue at least 4% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-12
AEISEarnings eventAEIS Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue at least 3% above Street consensus AND raises its FY2026 revenue-growth target again, above the 'low to mid-20s percent' range set on 2026-05-04, with the semiconductor segment inflecting off its flat-YoY Q1 rather than data-center strength alone carrying the beat.HIT2026-08-08
TSEMEarnings eventTSEM Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-03) discloses 2027 contracted silicon-photonics revenue above the $1.3B secured as of Q1 2026, with explicit dollar quantification, AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-08
MKSIEarnings eventMKSI Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-05) discloses AI / Electronics & Packaging chemistry revenue at or above 12% of total revenue (extending the 5%-to-10% mix doubling rather than plateauing at 10%) AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.PARTIAL2026-08-07
VECOEarnings eventVECO Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) discloses an explicitly dollar-quantified indium-phosphide laser-manufacturing equipment order or backlog figure above the >$250M level disclosed at Q1 2026, AND prints revenue at least 3% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.PARTIAL2026-08-07
GFSEarnings eventGlobalFoundries Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-05) discloses non-GAAP gross margin at or above 30.0% (reaching the ~30% exit-2026 waypoint of its own Investor Day margin trajectory two quarters early rather than on schedule) AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-07
AMDEarnings eventAMD Q2 fiscal 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue >= $11.2B (the high end of the prior guide), with Q3 sequential acceleration commentary tied to MI350P PCIe shipping volumes + Meta MI450 1 GW cluster ramp.HIT2026-08-05
ICHREarnings eventICHR Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue at least 2% above Street consensus AND reports revenue at or above $310M (the high end of the $290-310M guide issued 2026-05-04) rather than landing inside the range as a post-surprise re-anchoring would imply.MISS2026-08-04

This table shows the last 90 days. The complete record, by quarter: the archive.

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