THE MOSAIC LEDGER

Updated 2026-08-14

Independent research. Mosaic method. Publicly graded.

Registered before. Graded after. Never edited.

Currently sharpest incomputepoweropticsmaterialsbiology

Record

11 resolved

3 HIT 3 PARTIAL 5 MISS

Leg-level: 13 of 27 legs passed.

Every call below was registered before its horizon and is graded against rules written in advance. Method

Open calls

tickertypeclaimtierhorizon
Structural shiftPhotonics Track 1 (WFE Subsystems) advances from building → consensus stage within the next 2 earnings cycles (by 2026-08-15), driven by sequential beat-and-raise across ICHR / AEIS / MKSI followed by HBM-cycle WFE pull-through (TER / FORM via SK Hynix M15X ramp + MU multi-year prepayments).MEDIUM2026-08-15
Structural shiftThrough 2026-09-30, the binding bottleneck on AI compute deployment shifts away from GPU compute itself (NVDA/AMD/AVGO supply) toward four named adjacent constraints (memory: HBM3E/HBM4 capacity; networking: optical interconnect / scale-up fabric; power: chip-to-grid + behind-the-meter gas + rack power; cooling: liquid-cooling adoption), and equity outperformance follows, with these four pure-play constraint stacks meaningfully outperforming pure-GPU-exposure on a 6-month basis.HIGH2026-09-30
Structural shiftIndium phosphide (InP) substrate capacity emerges as an explicit named constraint on AI compute interconnect deployment by 2026-Q3, on par with CoWoS-as-named-constraint in the prior 2024-2025 cycle.MEDIUM2026-09-30
Emerging themeVECO and AXTI re-rate from conviction-3 photonics-watchlist names to conviction-3-confirmed (or conviction-4) over the next 6 months as the InP supply-chain cluster (5+ attestations as of 5/10) becomes a market-recognized constraint.HIGH2026-09-30
Structural shiftBy 2026-11-30 the memory constraint transmits beyond AI infrastructure into general hardware economics: at least four distinct non-AI-datacenter hardware issuers explicitly cite memory cost or memory supply as a named headwind to reported or guided margin in company-primary disclosure, AND at least one of SK hynix, Samsung Electronics or Micron discloses that general-purpose DRAM is being prioritised over HBM in wafer allocation or that DDR ASP growth exceeded HBM ASP growth in the quarter.MEDIUM2026-11-30
NVDAStructural shiftThrough 2026-12-31, NVIDIA continues vertical capital deployment into optical and physical AI supply chain via warrants, prepayments, and equity stakes at >$10B aggregate beyond the $44B-class run rate observed 4/28-5/8 (LITE+COHR $4B, GLW $3.2B, IREN $2.1B, AVGO Apollo/Blackstone $35B).HIGH2026-12-31
Structural shiftNVDA + TSMC strategic-restraint pricing regime breaks down in 2H 2026; ASPs migrate from cost-based to value-based across both platforms.MEDIUM2026-12-31
Structural shiftBy 2026-12-31 PJM-zone power scarcity rent migrates off the capacity market onto uncapped surfaces: at least three distinct generation owners disclose, in company-primary form, a data-center-dedicated behind-the-meter or bilateral supply arrangement with contracted capacity quantified in MW or GW, AND at least one of Talen, Constellation, Vistra or NRG discloses a dollar-quantified unit economic for such an arrangement ($/MW-day, $/MWh, or annual revenue or EBITDA per contracted GW) as distinct from a total-company guide.MEDIUM2026-12-31

Resolved calls

tickertypeclaimverdictresolved
AMATEarnings eventAt its 2026-08-13 Q3 FY26 print Applied Materials revises its CY2026 WFE growth framing upward from the current >30% or quantifies CY2026 WFE growth above 30%, AND reports revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot, AND surfaces co-packaged-optics or silicon-photonics commentary after the Q2 FY26 transcript silence.MISS2026-08-14
COHREarnings eventAt its 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print Coherent discloses dollar-quantified indium phosphide substrate capacity commitment or explicit InP supply-constraint language from company-primary disclosure, AND reports revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot, AND reports non-GAAP gross margin of at least 41.0% against the 39.6% Q3 FY26 base.PARTIAL2026-08-13
LITEEarnings eventLumentum's Q2 CY2026 print discloses an AI-optics / optical-circuit-switch backlog of at least USD 600M (a step of 50%+ above the >USD 400M figure reiterated 2026-06-24) and revenue at least 4% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-12
AEISEarnings eventAEIS Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue at least 3% above Street consensus AND raises its FY2026 revenue-growth target again, above the 'low to mid-20s percent' range set on 2026-05-04, with the semiconductor segment inflecting off its flat-YoY Q1 rather than data-center strength alone carrying the beat.HIT2026-08-08
TSEMEarnings eventTSEM Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-03) discloses 2027 contracted silicon-photonics revenue above the $1.3B secured as of Q1 2026, with explicit dollar quantification, AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-08
MKSIEarnings eventMKSI Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-05) discloses AI / Electronics & Packaging chemistry revenue at or above 12% of total revenue (extending the 5%-to-10% mix doubling rather than plateauing at 10%) AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.PARTIAL2026-08-07
VECOEarnings eventVECO Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) discloses an explicitly dollar-quantified indium-phosphide laser-manufacturing equipment order or backlog figure above the >$250M level disclosed at Q1 2026, AND prints revenue at least 3% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.PARTIAL2026-08-07
GFSEarnings eventGlobalFoundries Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-05) discloses non-GAAP gross margin at or above 30.0% (reaching the ~30% exit-2026 waypoint of its own Investor Day margin trajectory two quarters early rather than on schedule) AND prints revenue at least 2% above the frozen Street consensus snapshot.MISS2026-08-07
AMDEarnings eventAMD Q2 fiscal 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue >= $11.2B (the high end of the prior guide), with Q3 sequential acceleration commentary tied to MI350P PCIe shipping volumes + Meta MI450 1 GW cluster ramp.HIT2026-08-05
ICHREarnings eventICHR Q2 2026 (reports 2026-08-04) prints revenue at least 2% above Street consensus AND reports revenue at or above $310M (the high end of the $290-310M guide issued 2026-05-04) rather than landing inside the range as a post-surprise re-anchoring would imply.MISS2026-08-04
MUEarnings eventMicron (MU) Q3 fiscal-2026 print on 2026-06-25 confirms the HBM-fully-booked + multi-year-prepayment structure with explicit dollar disclosure of prepayment balance and/or named hyperscaler customer counterparty.HIT2026-06-25

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