Emerging theme
Registered claim
VECO and AXTI re-rate from conviction-3 photonics-watchlist names to conviction-3-confirmed (or conviction-4) over the next 6 months as the InP supply-chain cluster (5+ attestations as of 5/10) becomes a market-recognized constraint. Either Q2 print of either name shows accelerating InP-related order book OR a sell-side desk publishes initiation/upgrade explicitly anchored to InP supply-chain.
Registered 2026-05-10.
Resolution spec
Spec registered 2026-06-12.
- [A] CORE :: A Q2/Q3-cycle print of VECO or AXTI shows accelerating InP-related orders or revenue per primary disclosure, on or before 2026-11-10.kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-11-10 :: evidence: primary source
- [B] confirm :: A sell-side desk publishes an initiation or upgrade on VECO or AXTI explicitly anchored to the InP supply-chain constraint, on or before 2026-11-10.kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-11-10 :: evidence: any attested
Verdict rule: HIT if leg A or leg B. MISS if not leg A and not leg B.
As frozen: HIT = A || B; MISS = !A && !B
Tier history
- 2026-06-01: MEDIUM (initial). Trigger: CPO-in-production strengthens the broad optical/InP supply-chain-recognition backdrop relevant to VECO/AXTI re-rating, but no VECO/AXTI-specific re-rating datapoint today. Tier holds medium.
- 2026-06-18: MEDIUM > HIGH. Trigger: The InP supply-chain cluster has decisively strengthened on multi-attested primary-source evidence within days: AXT's binding take-or-pay InP supply agreement with prepayment (8-K), Coherent's CHIPS-funded $50M 4x InP-fab expansion, and the IQE/Tower epiwafer agreement - alongside AXTI's continued re-rating (Northland PT raise, 52-week highs). AXT's binding supply contract is a primary disclosure of accelerating InP orders bearing on the core leg A, and the optical-architecture-transition argument was reinforced today. Evidence base is now robust and multi-attested; raise to high.
Evaluated daily since registration: 37 evaluations. The 2 that moved the tier are listed above.