COHR

PARTIAL :: earnings event :: tier RESOLVED

Registered claim

At its 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print Coherent discloses dollar-quantified indium phosphide substrate capacity commitment or explicit InP supply-constraint language from company-primary disclosure, AND reports revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot, AND reports non-GAAP gross margin of at least 41.0% against the 39.6% Q3 FY26 base.

Registered 2026-08-01.

Resolution spec

Spec registered 2026-08-01.

• [A] CORE :: Coherent discloses, in company-primary disclosure at the 2026-08-12 Q4 FY26 print, either a dollar-quantified indium phosphide substrate capacity commitment (naming the AXT-Tongmei 6-inch MDSA, the Sherman InP fab expansion, or an explicit InP dollar figure) or explicit InP supply-constraint language.
  kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-08-12 :: evidence: primary source
• [B] confirm :: Q4 FY26 revenue at least 3% above the frozen pre-print consensus snapshot.
  kind: numeric threshold :: Q4 FY26 total revenue (USD) >= 3
  baseline 1980 (consensus snapshot, frozen 2026-08-07)
  note: COHR Q4 FY26 revenue consensus ~$1.98B (co. guidance $1.91-2.05B midpoint; analyst consensus per Yahoo Finance/Investing.com), fetched 2026-08-07
• [C] confirm :: Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin at or above 41.0%, versus the 39.6% reported for Q3 FY26.
  kind: numeric threshold :: Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin (percent) >= 2.5
  baseline 40 (consensus snapshot, frozen 2026-08-07)
  note: COHR Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross-margin consensus 40.0% (co. guidance 39-41% midpoint; Q3 FY26 actual 39.6%), fetched 2026-08-07

Verdict rule: HIT if leg A and leg B and leg C. PARTIAL if leg A, either leg B or leg C, and not both leg B and leg C. MISS if not leg A, or both not leg B and not leg C.

As frozen: HIT = A && B && C; PARTIAL = A && (B || C) && !(B && C); MISS = !A || (!B && !C)

Tier history

• 2026-08-01: MEDIUM (initial). Trigger: First assessment for this context. The prediction was seeded today by the catalyst-prediction-seeding phase against the 2026-08-12 Coherent Q4 FY26 catalyst and registered born-with-spec at the medium default. Its core leg - a dollar-quantified InP substrate capacity commitment or explicit InP supply-constraint language - sits directly on cap-inp-epiwafer-substrate-oligopoly, which held today with no modification after its 2026-07-31 narrowing to a time-bounded pricing-power claim. That narrowing is the relevant standing context: the lockup structure is confirmed, the scarcity is time-bounded, and Coherent is one of the named counterparties. Medium is the correct entry tier.

Evaluated daily since registration: 12 evaluations. The 1 that moved the tier is listed above.

Resolution receipt

Verdict: PARTIAL. Resolved 2026-08-13.

Rule: HIT if leg A and leg B and leg C. PARTIAL if leg A, either leg B or leg C, and not both leg B and leg C. MISS if not leg A, or both not leg B and not leg C.

As frozen: HIT = A && B && C; PARTIAL = A && (B || C) && !(B && C); MISS = !A || (!B && !C)

• [A] PASS: On its Q4 FY26 earnings call Coherent stated indium phosphide 'continues to be our primary constraint' and that it is 'really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production', and detailed doubling internal InP output year over year by the September quarter. This is explicit InP supply-constraint language in company-primary disclosure at the 2026-08-12 print.
• [B] PASS: actual_raw=2045.5 vs frozen baseline 1980 → 3.31% >= 3. Q4 FY26 total revenue reported at $2,045.5M.
• [C] FAIL: actual_raw=40.2 vs frozen baseline 40 → 0.50% >= 2.5. Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin reported at 40.2%.