Structural shift
Registered claim
By 2026-12-31 PJM-zone power scarcity rent migrates off the capacity market onto uncapped surfaces: at least three distinct generation owners disclose, in company-primary form, a data-center-dedicated behind-the-meter or bilateral supply arrangement with contracted capacity quantified in MW or GW, AND at least one of Talen, Constellation, Vistra or NRG discloses a dollar-quantified unit economic for such an arrangement ($/MW-day, $/MWh, or annual revenue or EBITDA per contracted GW) as distinct from a total-company guide.
Registered 2026-08-09.
Resolution spec
Spec registered 2026-08-09.
- [A] CORE :: At least three distinct generation owners (independent power producers, utilities or merchant generators) disclose, in company-primary form dated between 2026-08-09 and 2026-12-31, a data-center-dedicated behind-the-meter or bilateral supply arrangement with contracted capacity quantified in MW or GW. A total-company data-center pipeline figure without a contracted arrangement does not qualify. Distinct issuing entity per attestation.kind: attestation count :: threshold 3 :: independence: distinct issuing entity
- [B] confirm :: At least one of Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, Vistra or NRG Energy discloses, in company-primary disclosure dated between 2026-08-09 and 2026-12-31, a dollar-quantified unit economic for a data-center-dedicated behind-the-meter or bilateral arrangement - a $/MW-day rate, a $/MWh price, or an annual revenue or EBITDA figure attributed to a specific contracted MW or GW block - as distinct from total-company guidance.kind: dated binary event :: event date 2026-12-31 :: evidence: primary source
Verdict rule: HIT if leg A and leg B. PARTIAL if leg A and not leg B. MISS if not leg A.
As frozen: HIT = A && B; PARTIAL = A && !B; MISS = !A
Tier history
- 2026-08-11: MEDIUM (initial). Trigger: First reasoning-based assessment of this newly-registered prediction. The mechanism is well-supported: the grid-headroom-BTM argument was reinforced today, PJM 2028/29 auctions cleared at the $325/MW-day cap, and NRG's 1.2 GW bring-your-own-power hyperscaler deal is a clean company-primary instance of a data-center-dedicated arrangement. But the specific bar is only partially met so far: one owner (NRG) has a quantified BTM arrangement, and a dollar-quantified unit economic distinct from a total-company guide has not yet been disclosed. Evidence is accumulating but not yet complete, so medium is the correct first tier.
Evaluated daily since registration: 3 evaluations. The 1 that moved the tier is listed above.