TXN

OPEN · earnings event · tier MEDIUM

Registered claim

On its 2026-10-21 third-quarter call Texas Instruments states that lead times across a material part of its portfolio are extended beyond its normal range, or that it is allocating supply, and NXP's 2026-10-27 third-quarter report keeps lead times beyond 16 weeks with book-to-bill above one: the analog and power-semiconductor incumbents have moved from recovery into allocation rather than a restock.

Registered 2026-10-11.

Resolution spec

Spec registered 2026-10-11.

• [A] CORE · On its 2026-10-21 third-quarter 2026 earnings call, Texas Instruments management states that lead times for a material part of its portfolio are extended beyond the company's normal range, or states that it is allocating supply to customers; a statement that lead times are normal, stable or short, or silence on lead times at the call, fails the leg
  kind: dated binary event · event date 2026-10-21 · evidence: primary source
• [B] confirm · NXP's third-quarter 2026 results, released on or about 2026-10-27, state that lead times remain beyond 16 weeks across a significant part of its portfolio and that book-to-bill remains above one; either figure stated back inside the range, or silence on both, fails the leg
  kind: dated binary event · event date 2026-10-27 · evidence: primary source

Verdict rule: HIT if leg A and leg B. PARTIAL if leg A and not leg B. MISS if not leg A.

As frozen: HIT = A && B; PARTIAL = A && !B; MISS = !A

Tier history

• 2026-10-12: MEDIUM (initial). Trigger: First assessment, at medium. Core leg A tests what Texas Instruments says about lead times or allocation on its October 21 call and cannot move before then. Leg B tests the NXP report on October 27; that company said in early October that lead times were beyond 16 weeks with book-to-bill above one and no restocking, so leg B starts from a favourable position without being established. The supporting record is peer prints from the summer showing record power and industrial demand, which makes the direction plausible and does not show the largest analog maker allocating. Nothing today bears on either leg.

Evaluated daily since registration: 2 evaluations. The 1 that moved the tier is listed above.